In Two Years, Real Estate will Rock

Housing starts will nearly double by 2014, and home prices will begin to rise in 2013, with prices increasing significantly in 2014.

Those rosy predictions come from a new semi-annual survey of 38 of the nation's leading real estate economists and analysts by the Urban Land Institute's Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate.

 The economists foresee broad improvements for the nation's economy, real estate capital markets, real estate fundamentals and the housing industry through 2014, including:

• The national average home price is expected to stop declining this year, and then rise by 2 percent in 2013 and by 3.5 percent in 2014.

• Vacancy rates are expected to drop in a range of between 1.2 and 3.7 percentage points for office, retail, and industrial properties and remain stable at low levels for apartments; while hotel occupancy rates will likely rise;

• Rents are expected to increase for all property types, with 2012 increases ranging from 0.8 percent for retail up to 5.0 percent for apartments;

These strong projections are based on a promising outlook for the overall economy. The survey results show the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise steadily from 2.5 percent this year to 3 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent by 2014; the nation's unemployment rate is expected to fall to 8.0 percent in 2012, 7.5 percent in 2013, and 6.9 percent by 2014; and the number of jobs created is expected to rise from and expected 2 million in 2012 to 2.5 million in 2013 to 2.75 million in 2014.

The improving economy, however, will likely lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which will raise the cost of borrowing for consumers and investors. For 2012, 2013 and 2014, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be 2.4 percent, 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively; and ten-year treasury rates will rise along with inflation, with a rate of 2.4 percent projected for 2012, 3.1 percent for 2013, and 3.8 percent for 2014.

The survey, conducted during late February and early March, is a consensus view and reflects the median forecast for 26 economic indicators, including property transaction volumes and issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities; property investment returns, vacancy rates and rents for several property sectors; and housing starts and home prices. Comparisons are made on a year-by-year basis from 2009, when the nation was in the throes of recession, through 2014.

While the ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast suggests that economic growth will be steady rather than sporadic, it must be viewed within the context of numerous risk factors such as the continuing impact of Europe's debt crisis; the impact of the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. and major elections overseas; and the complexities of tighter financial regulations in the U.S. and abroad, said ULI Chief Executive Officer Patrick L. Phillips. "While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years. These results hold much promise for the real estate industry."

A slight cooling trend in the apartment sector – the investors' darling for the past two years – is seen in the survey results, with other property types projected to gain momentum over the next two years. By property type, total returns for institutional quality assets in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments, at 12.1 percent; followed by industrial, at 11.5 percent; office, at 10.8 percent; and retail, at 10 percent. By 2014, however, returns are expected to be strongest for office, at 10 percent, and industrial, at 10 percent; followed by apartments at 8.8 percent and retail at 8.5 percent.

The forecast predicts a modest increase in vacancy rates, from 5 percent this year to 5.1 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent in 2014; and a decrease in rental growth rates, with rents expected to grow by 5 percent this year, and then moderate to a growth rate of 4.0 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent by 2014. This may be indicative of supply catching up with demand.

For the housing industry, the survey results suggest that 2012 could mark the beginning of a turnaround – albeit a slow one. Single-family housing starts, which have been near record lows over the past three years, are projected to reach 500,000 in 2012, 660,000 in 2013, and 800,000 in 2014. The overhang of foreclosed properties in markets hit hardest by the housing collapse will continue to affect the housing recovery in those markets. However, in general, improved job prospects and strengthening consumer confidence will likely bring buyers back to the housing market.

From Real Estate Economy Watch

How to pick a real estate agent that suits your needs

Many factors contribute to the experience and success of buying and selling homes, but even in the digital age of a more transparent real estate market, working with a good real estate agent continues to be one of biggest impacts on either side of the transaction.

But how do you pick the right person to represent you or your home?

Before you just start asking your friends or digging through the fliers in your mailbox or hunting online, here are a few dos and don'ts you should seriously consider when selecting an agent.

Do:

Ask people you trust for agent recommendations, but take what they say with a grain of salt. Did they recently buy a home in your same price range? Have they had a successful time selling their home? Just because this agent worked out well for them does not guarantee the same experience for you.

Research. Most real estate websites, including Zillow, have online agent reviews. This can be a good starting place.

Find an agent that specializes in what you're trying to do. Don't select an agent who sells $2 million homes to help you find a $200,000 home. Check out current home listings. Do you like the photos, the description? Try contacting the agent to see if they're available for you.

Interview the agent. What is their specific marketing plan for your home? How will they negotiate so that you can be the winning bidder on your dream home? Why are they the best option for you? Can you call some of their past clients?

Set up expectations. What do you want from them? Outline your needs from the get-go so there won't be any surprises down the road.

Make sure you get along with the agent. You don't need to be best friends, but ultimately there should be some sort of rapport that allows for a successful business relationship.

Don't:

Pick friends or family. You don't want to jeopardize a friendship if the buying or selling process gets difficult. Also, be wary of hiring even a friend of a friend, or someone recommended. If you're serious about real estate, find someone that you can be honest and professional with. Unfortunately, that may not include your cousin or your best friend's spouse.

Pick someone who dually represents the buyer and the seller of the property you're looking at. They may not be able to fully transparent with you.

Be afraid to break up with your agent. Be honest and simply tell the agent it's not working out. List your reasons and be respectful.

If you're not quite ready to be tied down to a particular agent, it's better not to engage one until you've made a formal decision. You can communicate with an agent and ask for advice, but be clear upfront where you stand.

Source: http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate/ci_20260470/how-pick-real-estate-agent-that-suits-your

Recent real estate sales in town

Acquisitions on the domestic investment market are closely linked with the liquidity offered in the financial markets and relative costs of capital.

The Czech real estate investment market includes a diverse range of investor type including domestic and foreign institutional investors, mutual and pension funds, investment and asset management companies and private investors.

Whilst these investors have diversified investment strategies they share a common denominator; they almost invariably use debt financing as a basis for deriving higher returns from their assets. Given the developments of global financial and real estate markets in recent years investors and lenders have adopted a more conservative approach to the acquisition and funding of real estate. And yet, according to the international consulting firm DTZ, the Czech market last year showed considerable resilience reaching the second highest level of investment activity since 2007 – approximately €2.199 billion

“It is reasonable to expect that investment volumes will decline in response to higher costs of equity and reduced availability of debt funding, however, the banks and investors have in essence reacted in tandem; both are applying higher risk profiles. Banks reflect this by an increase in general debt margins to ca. 300 bps above Euribor and a focus on minimum debt service coverage ratio of 1:1.25; whilst investors target higher yields, strong tenant covenants and longer term secured income. These two approaches are simple variations of the other,” explains Ryan Wray, Head of the investment department at DTZ’s Prague office.

Along with higher financing costs the market has experienced a shift in the leveraging banks are willing to offer. In general most debt providers are comfortable at 65% LTV whereas in the past 70% and above was relatively easy to secure. In reaction to this investors are seeking debt alternatives, looking to private equity and mezzanine finance structures. Although these structures are generally more expensive, they provide a means for investors to bridge the funding gap at a given moment, and thus also increase the likelihood that the transaction will complete.

At present, banks financing investment transactions across all commercial property segments, i.e. retail, offices and industrial projects. However, the individual terms offered differ depending not only on the quality of the real estate asset but also the financing partners exposures to a given sector or client.

“Everyone is happy lending on a prime class-A office project with long-term leases to fortune 500 companies; but that does not mean that properties in secondary locations with shorter leases do not attract debt finance” explains Ryan.

“Provided the real estate fundamentals are correct in terms or location and construction plus there is a reasonable remaining lease term of ca. three years and DSCR of 1.25, most active banks will offer financing terms.

Even with the somewhat more cautious (and costly) banks’ policies investment volumes grew in the last quarter of 2011: at the continental level by 7% in the total y/y aggregate, and by 17% compared to Q3 2011 levels.

Further the Czech Republic exceeded these trends with a final transaction volume of €2.2 billion, the second highest volume in history and close to its formidable neighbor and competitor for investment funds, Poland, which reported a total volume of €2.5 billion for 2011.

It is expected that this year revenues from properties will remain stable: yields for class-A office properties are around 6.25 -6.5%, for retail properties around 6.0-6.2525% and 8% for long term let industrial properties.

“At the beginning of 2012, the overall investment sentiment and prevailing caution of all the market players has resulted in a slight slowdown in investment activity, nonetheless we expect this to improve by the mid-year as several currently on-going transactions will be concluded which will stimulate the market again,” said Ryan Wray.

Source: http://www.sacommercialpropnews.co.za/south-africa-provincial-news/international-commercial-property/4558-real-estate-investment-thriving-in-czech-republic-despite-increased-cost-of-financing.html

Real estate prices to grow by 10% in Kazakhstan in 2012, expert says

The growth of demand for real estate in Kazakhstan reached approximately 20% at year-end 2011.

Rising real estate prices will reach 10% this year in Kazakhstan, Interfax reports citing the Joint Association of Estate Agents. Professionals say that there are several reasons for this and according to the statistics agency, wages rose by 18% last year. A shortage of residential real estate will be yet another factor in the growth of demand and property prices.

Source: http://caspionet.kz/eng/business/Real_estate_prices_to_grow_by_10_in_Kazakhstan_in_2012__expert_says_1332223298.html

Real estate agents expect housing values to increase

Livonia home sales are increasing and listed homes are spending less time on the market.

But the median sales price has declined for the first two months of this year versus last year.

For real estate agents, the statistics show that the housing market is turning around.

“There's an increased demand, the days that listed homes are on the market are falling, which means the homes are selling faster, and the numbers of sales are increasing,” said Gary Reggish, broker and owner of Remerica United Realty in Livonia.

Realcomp of Farmington released figures on Monday showing that metro Detroit's overall home sales have increased 15 percent in a six-county area, including Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties.

Realcomp reported 104 sales in February in Livonia, up from last February's 68. This year's total is 193, up from 133 a year ago.

While that statistic shows the inventory of listed homes is moving, other statistics reveal that values have not turned around yet.

Home values showed a decline. The median sales price in Livonia was $81,500 for February, down from last year's $93,500. The median price for overall 2012 sales was $88,000, falling from $90,000 in 2011.

Homes are not sitting on the market as long as they were in 2011. A year ago, a home sat on the market for an average of 100 days for January and February; in 2012 that number for the first two months is 93.

Bidding wars

Lisa Hall, owner of Remax Dream Properties in Northville and Livonia, said agents are experiencing “extremely low inventories” for homes, except for foreclosures and short sales,

Both Reggish and Hall said bidding wars are starting to return as buyers seek homes, which also drives up the sales price, and will increase the value of homes listed for future sellers. They both indicated that they need homes to sell.

“If the home is well-taken care of, we are seeing several offers for it,” Hall said. “If a home four houses away from you sells for $65,000, it isn't out of the question that you can get $85,000 for your house.”

Reggish said the National Association of Realtors is putting pressure on the banks to lift the appraisals and get them to an accurate market value. Reggish serves on its board of directors, and on the state and local issues committee and the federal housing committee.

“It's fear,” Reggish said of the banks. “They fear that the market hasn't stabilized yet.”

Hall said the housing bubble burst, and that it will take at least 10 years to return the values back to where they once were. “You can stay, if you still have equity in the home or if you want to be moving up into a larger home, now is a good time to be moving up,” Hall said. Larger homes in foreclosure or short sales are good buys right now, Hall said.

And while homes have fallen drastically in value, the other side of that coin means that downsizing also brings a lower price beyond what existed a few years ago. Hall said she has listed a colonial in Livonia for a couple who want to downsize to a condo. “Those condos have fallen $50,000 to $75,000 in price,” Hall said.

Reggish believes Livonia is turning the corner. “The number of units is up so that shows the demand, and the homes are getting eaten up quickly,” Reggish said.

The average sales price in Livonia is about $115,000, give or take a few hundred dollars, Reggisn said. “That number speaks as a number that is stabilizing,” Reggish said.

Reggish believes homeowners are on the cusp of a market upswing and the market is ripe to buy. Home values are at their lowest levels, interest rates are at 4 percent for a 30-year mortgage and 3.75 percent for a 15-year fixed rate, Reggish said.

Reggish said his office showed a home in Livonia last weekend and 22 people showed up. One home in Northville listed for $575,000 received six offers and sold for $610,000.

Reggish said he is averaging 2 1/2 offers per house. “The buyers are out there; they just need product to buy,” Reggish said.

Livonia not as hard hit

Hall, who lists properties in Northville, Novi and Farmington Hills as well as Livonia and other western Wayne County communities, said she averages about three prospective buyers for each house she lists.

“Livonia is one of the best places to buy,” Hall said. “It wasn't hit as hard as other communities.”

At his recent State of the City, Mayor Jack Kirksey said it could take 11 to 15 years to return to 2007 property tax levels unless changes in state legislation occur, which is unlikely.

Taxable values are limited under Proposal A in Michigan to the consumer price index or 5 percent, whichever is less, unless the house is sold. Kirksey expects local governments will be limited to about 3 percent a year.

Kirksey said he was encouraged by some of the statistics about the housing market and that other factors tie into the decline in the housing value, such as foreclosures. Kirksey said he's spoken to real estate agents and is aware that homes are selling quicker.

“There's far fewer on the streets than a year ago,” Kirksey said.

Kirksey is optimistic, but knows that these sales figures are nothing more than a snapshot, and that overall sales at the year's end will need to be examined.

“It's virtually impossible for me to say whether we've bottomed out or not,” Kirksey said. “At the very least, it appears we've started to climb out of it.

“I don't know if that will continue, but I don't think we will fall any further. I am optimistic about it.”

Source: http://www.hometownlife.com/article/20120318/NEWS10/203180495

CBRE named top commercial real estate brand

BOSTON — CBRE Group Inc. announced the company was named the top global brand in commercial real estate, according to a survey of industry professionals worldwide by The Lipsey Co. CBRE has been named the industry's No. 1 brand by Lipsey for 11 consecutive years.

The Lipsey survey measures commercial real estate professionals' perceptions of the industry's leading brands. More than 50,000 U.S. and international professionals participated in the 2012 survey, including property owners, investors, lenders, occupiers, brokers and property managers.

"We are deeply honored that our clients and industry peers have selected CBRE for this recognition for 11 straight years," said Brett White, CBRE's chief executive officer. "Credit for this achievement really belongs with our 34,000 professionals around the world, who work diligently and creatively every day to exceed our clients' expectations."

The Lipsey Co. provides training and professional development services to the commercial real estate industry. CB Richard Ellis-N.E. Partners LP, a joint venture with CBRE Group Inc., has offices in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine and New Hampshire. For information, visit www.cbre-ne.com.

Source: http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20120317-BIZ-203170303

Future bright for Valley real estate

Fresno real estate experts have some good news about the commercial and residential markets this year: Home prices are expected to climb somewhat, and large retail projects are slated to begin construction.

That prediction Thursday night at the Fresno Real Estate Forecast is a change from recent years, when experts at the annual event expected meager home sales, no projects and a far-off real estate recovery.

But things look brighter this year as the job market improves, mortgage interest rates remain low and home prices remain affordable, said Joan Eaton, owner and broker of Guarantee Real Estate.

Eaton was one of eight speakers at the event, which is organized by the Economic Development Corporation serving Fresno County.

Prices will begin to creep back up in the next few years because the inventory of homes for sale in the Fresno area is at a six-year low, Eaton said.

"We have a shortage of homes," Eaton said. "We are shifting to a seller's market."

In January, there was little more than a three-month supply of houses for sale based on the current pace of sales, according to the Fresno multiple listing service. A healthy market has three to six months of houses for sale, Eaton said.

And after four years of no new retail construction, at least three projects could begin this year. That's a good sign for an industry that has struggled as national retailers pulled out of the Valley and few local businesses moved or expanded.

Construction on the retail portion of Campus Pointe at Fresno State will start this spring. By late summer, dirt should move for the El Paseo shopping center south of Herndon Avenue and east of Highway 99 in northwest Fresno. And Clovis Crossings at Clovis and Herndon avenues near Highway 168, anchored by Walmart and Dick's Sporting Goods, should start to take shape.

"Gazing into the crystal ball is never an easy task," said Peter Orlando, a partner and broker at Retail California. But based on local real estate indicators, he said, "the future is bright."

Source: http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/03/15/2762811/future-bright-for-valley-real.html

Stocks plunge after Wen’s real estate pledge

BEIJING - Chinese shares tumbled Wednesday after Premier Wen Jiabao said China will not halt its efforts to reign in housing prices.

The current housing prices are still far from falling back to a reasonable level, Wen said at a press conference after the conclusion of China's annual parliamentary session.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index plunged after a small rebound the previous trading day. The index fell 2.63 percent, or 64.57 points, to end at 2,391.23, the lowest close in almost three weeks.

The Shenzhen Component Index slumped 3.19 percent, or 332.35 points, to end at 10,094.89.

Losers outnumbered gainers by 897 to 44 in Shanghai and by 1,342 to 74 in Shenzhen.

Combined turnover of the two bourses sharply expanded to 327.6 billion yuan ($51.8 billion) from 201.5 billion yuan the previous trading day.

At Wednesday's press conference, Wen called for long-term, steady and sound development of China's property market, saying the gains will be lost and chaos will occur in the housing sector if the current regulations are loosened.

The government's firm stance on property market control hit the sector, leading to the decline of the cement and property shares.

Shares of property developers dropped 4.93 percent with China Vanke, the nation's largest property developer by market value, down 2.7 percent to 8.29 yuan per share; Poly Real Estate fell 3 percent to 11 yuan.

The cement sector slid across the board with Hebei Urban Construction Development Co, Ltd. down 9.82 percent to 6.89 yuan; Shanghai Zhezhong Construction co, Ltd. dropped 6.74 percent to 13.56 yuan.

The downward movement of the property and cement sectors was further followed by a slide of other shares in the ship-building, entertainment, and coal sectors.

Shipmakers extended losses from Tuesday with CSSC Jiangnan Heavy Industry Co, Ltd. down 7.07 percent to 18.01 yuan; China CSSC Holdings Ltd. slid 5.41 percent to 36.01 yuan.

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, the nation's largest coal producer, fell 2.95 percent to 26.35 yuan; Jishi Media Co, Ltd. plunged 8.92 percent to 11.23 yuan.

Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012npc/2012-03/14/content_14835300.htm

Commercial Real Estate Bouncing Back

The commercial real estate industry in Utah is seeing a recovery, but some are worried that slow lending may stall future projects, according to a group of real estate experts at a Utah Business magazine roundtable Tuesday morning.

Most medium to large office spaces—10,000 square feet or more—are full, and even smaller spaces are beginning to fill up with the help of SBA loans, said Bob Chatfield, CEO of the Bank of American Fork.

Smaller deals are coming back, but it’s only been recently, said Brandon Fugal, Coldwell Banker Commercial executive vice president. Fugal said the last three months have seen an uptick in smaller offices getting leased.

Although things are going well, Fugal said he’s concerned that there isn’t enough building going on to meet future needs. “What I’m afraid of is Utah, by default, chasing companies away that would have otherwise located here because we have a lack of product and we have very few developers that really have the ability to go vertical quickly.”

Jake Boyer, president and CEO of the Boyer Company, said his company hears a lot about the supply shortage in commercial building, but they are willing, able and ready to build for a legitimate tenant.

Fugal said the problem with that is few tenants are looking the year to two years in advance needed to complete a large-scale commercial project. Many of the companies that are now driving the economy didn’t exist in their present form five years ago, so planning out that far in advance isn’t realistic.

However speculative building is almost nonexistent and getting financing to build without a significant part of the building pre-leased is nearly impossible, said Eric Smith, first vice president at CBRE.

Pentad Properties President Greg Shields said cities also need to have enough staff to address permits in a timely way. “If you want these national tenants, these jobs, these residents, you have to be able to move it along quickly—and I’m not saying give anything up—move it along quickly once these projects come. Or the people are going to go away if the process takes too long.”

The arrival of City Creek will cause some problems for Gateway and other properties for a while, but the attendees agreed that ultimately the new development will be a gain for downtown and draw more businesses away from the suburbs despite higher costs and longer timeframes for downtown projects.

The Commercial Real Estate roundtable will appear in the May issue of Utah Business magazine.

Source: http://www.utahbusiness.com/issues/articles/12176/2012/03/commercial_real_estate_bouncing_back

Olive: Canadian real estate prices are falling – not the sky

Everything in moderation.

Recent homebuyers can’t be cheered by forecasts of a looming slump in house prices so soon after paying record prices in what may be the tail end of a 13-year-long Canadian housing boom.

But hold the Prozac.

First, while house prices are widely forecast to soften this year, no one’s expecting a U.S.-style crash of the sort that had prices in overheated markets like Florida, California and Arizona plunging by 70 to 90 per cent between 2007 and 2009.

That cataclysm set off defaults, foreclosures, a Wall Street meltdown, and the global Great Recession. By contrast, expect prices in admittedly overheated Canadian markets – conspicuously the GTA and Vancouver – to ease by 5 per cent to 10 per cent this year. And then to recover and begin making gains over purchase prices in 2013.

There’s an unduly alarmist tone to the latest forecasts of declining Canadian house prices. The headlines give one the impression of an imminent sharp fall.

A recent Maclean’s article linking patterns in Canadian residential real estate activity with record household indebtedness is headlined, “Time to panic about the housing market.”

Even a house fire isn’t something to panic over. You’ll just get in the way of the firefighters.

What we’re actually witnessing is a competent effort by the powers that be to prevent a torrid escalation in property sales and prices. Ottawa has been working on this for two years now, with frequent warnings to Canadians by the Bank of Canada and the federal finance minister to ease up on debt-financed consumer spending, including house purchases.

Mark Carney, the Bank governor, must have conspicuously warned at least half a dozen times over the past 18 months that today’s low interest rates “won’t last forever.” He should know, since he and his Bank colleagues set them. And the Bank has been keeping rates very low – a temptation to over-indulge in credit – in order to spur growth in Ontario’s ailing manufacturing sector.

Commercial banks have joined this coordinated effort to tamp down prices, tightening their lending standards to keep folks who can’t afford to carry a mortgage from attempting to do so. Meanwhile, since January they’ve also been engaged in a price war on mortgage rates that has made house ownership more affordable for existing mortgagees and prospective creditworthy buyers.

That’s the opposite of what U.S., U.K. and Spanish banks did in force-feeding mortgages in the 2000s to millions of buyers with no down payment, no collateral, no or little income, and a poor credit history.

The collateral damage from easing the pain with low interest rates for a Canadian manufacturing heartland that has received repeated blows to the gut since the early 2000s, long before the Great Recession accelerated the layoffs, is that money has arguably been too “cheap” for too long elsewhere in the economy.

That was the mistake, one of the biggest in central banking history, that Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, made in keeping rates near zero for years after the 9/11 attacks and the mild recession that followed. Which in turn spurred an unprecedented U.S. housing boom that ended in tragedy, with more than eight million Americans abruptly losing their jobs in 2008-10.

It may seem counterintuitive to wish for a slowdown in housing or any other (legal) market.

Yet when you consider that Toronto has in recent years been tied with Atlanta as the fastest-growing city in North America, adding the equivalent of a Calgary to its population every decade, you get a perspective on rising municipal costs that most city councillors and certainly the mayor don’t appreciate.

At 158 structures, Toronto has more skyscrapers and condo towers under construction than any North American city. The three runners-up combined – New York, Chicago and Miami – have 94. Time to apply the brakes.

It isn’t a legacy of wasteful spending that has the GTA in a financial bind. It’s building out municipal services to accommodate so many newcomers.

Cooling-off periods in Toronto property prices have characterized the GTA since the end of the Second World War, making it one of the most stable and lucrative housing markets in the world. What’s happening with prices today is no different. And this has kept Toronto relatively affordable for house buyers even as prices have steadily risen with only brief interruptions over the decades.

All movements go too far. Speaking of which, houses in downtown Detroit have hit rock bottom at $14,000 for a detached three-bedroom. So if the impulse in you to roll the dice on house purchases cannot be denied, think about picking up a six-pack of Motown properties whose price has nowhere to go but up.

Source: http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1144746--olive-canadian-real-estate-prices-are-falling-not-the-sky?bn=1

Dubai property prices are among fastest rising

Dubai’s residential real estate has not only stabilised, but house prices in the emirate rose an average 2.3 per cent in the final three months of 2011, according to global residential and commercial property consultants Knight Frank.

As per the consultancy’s Global House Price Index (GHPI), the increase in Dubai house prices during the last quarter of 2011 was particularly steep, and ranked on the last quarter’s rise of 2.3 per cent, Dubai stands at No. 12 worldwide in terms of house price appreciation among the 52 destinations worldwide where Knight Frank tracks house prices.

For the whole of last year, Dubai ranked No. 26 as per the GHPI, which tracks the performance of mainstream house prices wprldwide. Dubai house prices rose just 0.5 per cent for the entire year 2011, suggesting that they declined in the initial months of the year, and were more than countered by the last quarter surge.

Knight Frank’s rankings are supported by real-time asking prices on popular local websites where property is advertised, with asking prices going up in many well established and maintained locations in Dubai.

According to real estate investment and advisory firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), Dubai’s property market is maturing and showing signs of polarisation, with differing prospects in 2012 for property based on location, quality and management.

“2011 was a difficult year for real estate investors with most sectors of the market moving in the favour of tenants, with lower prices and rentals.

While these trends appear likely to continue into 2012, the main trend for this year is likely to be an increasing polarisation within each sector of the market,” said Alan Robertson, CEO, JLL MENA, in a recent report on the UAE’s property market trends.

“As the performance of the best quality projects will improve, average prices are expected to decline further in 2012 within this increasingly two tier market,” he said. “Beyond investment valuations and rentals, we are continuing to see the evolution of a more mature marketplace in the UAE where valuations and property and asset management are becoming increasingly important for occupiers, developers and investors,” Robertson added.

“The local real estate market will continue be impacted by regional and global events during 2012 as, the UAE is not immune from the on-going impact of the Arab Spring and the economic troubles of the Eurozone. As we enter 2012, the real estate sector will inevitably be susceptible to any potential geo-political changes within the region, with the recent escalation of rhetoric between Iran and the West being the major cause of uncertainty. The worsening European debt crises and its impact on the global economy will be the other major external challenge to the UAE real estate market in 2012,” he said.

According to Knight Frank analyst Kate Everett Allen, “In the final quarter of 2011, prices fell in 60 per cent of the countries covered by the index.”

New entrant Brazil tops Knight Frank’s GHPI for 2011, with house prices rising 26.3 per cent in 2011. “Away from Europe and Asia, Brazil, a new addition to the index this quarter, tops the rankings with 26 per cent price growth in 2011,” said Kate. “This remarkable performance is being fuelled by strong population growth, rising household wealth and an expanding mortgage market,” she added.

An unsettled Europe formed the bottom of the housing market pyramid in 2011, with still-declining house prices in many of the European markets. “Unsurprisingly, all 12 of the bottom rankings are occupied by European markets with Ireland, down 17 per cent, in last place. However, not all European markets are in a moribund state,” said Kate.

“Estonia, Slovenia, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Germany achieved annual growth over 5 per cent, despite the precarious state of the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis,” she pointed out.

“A combination of global economic uncertainty, weak consumer confidence and strict mortgage lending criteria are dampening growth in Europe and North America while stringent government cooling measures in Asia Pacific are successfully curtailing house price inflation there,” she said.

“Asia’s downturn has proved highly influential. In 2007 China, Hong Kong and Singapore saw price rises of 42, 21 and 33 per cent, respectively. Last year, growth was -2, 11 and 5 per cent,” she elaborated.

“What the index makes clear is that the performance of global housing markets is far from uniform. While there is some cause for localised optimism, the overall trend for 2012 at least is unlikely to be positive.”

Source: http://www.emirates247.com/business/dubai-property-prices-are-among-fastest-rising-2012-03-11-1.447632

USA Real Estate Market Update

Housing problems depend on the House

News about the housing market leads many Americans to think that no one was spared in the downturn. That is not so. While 20% of mortgages are underwater, 80% are not.

Many homes bought in Y’s 2005 and 2006 have lost a third or more of their value, but houses bought in Y 2000 are mostly more valuable today.

S&P recently issued its global housing report. Most of the analysis should be no surprise. The home market in Europe is disastrous in almost all countries.

Unemployment levels, well into the double digits in many nations, will do that. Home values in the BRIC nations are mostly higher, as their economies continued largely to expand through the recession.

S&P reports that: at the brighter end of the spectrum, Sao Paulo, Brazil experienced the World’s 2nd strongest house-price rises, after Delhi, India last year, with an increase of 19.8%, according to the Global Property Guide.

Those numbers should remind residents of Nevada and parts of California of the period between Y’s 2000 and 2005.

S&P also reports that the Chinese residential home market has begun to sputter as a slowing economy there and an end to easy credit have undermined its advances.

Some analysts will look at the report and say that the home market in Brazil will have to fall. It has grown too fast to be sustainable, they will say.

All that means is that no economic market can go up forever, which is not much of an observation. The same people will argue that European home values will recover, at least to some extent, because that is what happens when a recession, even a very long and deep one, finally ends.

The most important point the S&P report makes, at least for Americans, is that the housing market problem here may be severe, but only for a relatively small fraction of homeowners who were unfortunate enough, or dumb enough, to buy at the Top.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.

Source: http://www.livetradingnews.com/usa-real-estate-market-update-65157.htm#.T1sOp4Fb8rM

Phoenix Real Estate Rallies

Two months of increased real estate volume recorded through the Registry of Deeds and signs that a backlog of foreclosures are moving forward are good signs for the real estate market and county coffers.

“You need to see volume to tell you that there's life out there,” Register of Deeds Jack Meade said.

In February, Meade said the Registry processed about 100 orders of notice, the precursor to formal foreclosure filings.

In February 2011, foreclosures saw a sudden decline, as banks voluntarily held back as questions were raised about certain processing procedures.

With some recent court rulings favoring lenders and others holding delinquent mortgages, there has been an uptick in foreclosures moving forward here and across the country.

Meade said that not all of the increased foreclosure activity would add money to the county’s bottom line. Foreclosures handled through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the federally backed mortgage corporations, do not pay excise taxes when they clear properties.

Still, with heavier foreclosure and true market activity seen in both January and February, Meade believes sales volume could start creeping back.

“We should do better than what we did this year,” Meade predicted. “I do think that there's been some pent-up demand for a period of years.”

That’s a scenario that Barnstable County officials hopes pans out.

Revenue out of the Registry of Deeds counts for greater than 40 percent of county revenues and is the single greatest contributor to its general fund. When the real estate market slips, available money for county operations does as well.

February saw an increase of more than $130,000 over last year. While February 2011 saw the lowest level of excise taxes in any of the past three years, Meade said that any time there’s a 30 percent increase, tied to an increase in volume, that’s a good sign.

Last year, the county’s general funds balance dropped $360,000, even with $1.2 million in budget turn backs and decreased spending. This year, projections contained in the proposed 2013 budget show an anticipated $2 million-plus drop in the general fund, based on flat deeds revenues through the end of the year.

With four months left in this budget year, the hope is for stronger revenue out of the Registry to lessen that drawdown.

Based on his experience, Meade said that the revenue projections from the Registry of Deeds in the proposed 2013 budget are not unrealistic. County Administrator Mark Zielinski reduced the amounts for both the deeds excise tax (down $450,000) and business revenues (down $220,000) for next year to a flat $10 million.

Overall, Meade was more optimistic about what he’s seeing, even with the foreclosures.

“It means these houses are back in play ... and that's a good thing,” Meade said.

Source: http://www.barnstablepatriot.com/home2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28146&Itemid=30

Property commissions total Dh700m

Total commissions earned by real estate brokers, companies and individuals, in Dubai amounted to almost Dh700 million for 2011, according to Real Estate Regulatory Agency (Rera).

Yousef Al Hashmi, director of Rera’s Real Estate Licensing Department said the commissions reflect the total yield of various property deals that included the sale of lands, villas, residential units such as apartments and hotel apartments and offices in freehold areas, valued at Dh34 billion.

He pointed out that the continuous efforts by RERA to set up a comprehensive, accurate database that covers all aspects of the real estate development sector and relevant professions have made it easy to come up with accurate statistics on brokers’ commissions, compared to previous estimates.

Real estate brokers receive one per cent of the deal value as a commission on successfully sealed deals, unless parties agree otherwise.

The real estate brokers’ register in Dubai is regulated by the law no. 85 of 2006 concerning regulation of real estate broker’s register that restrict brokers from mediating in the sale, purchase or marketing of properties that are not listed at the Dubai Land Department.

Brokering agencies and agents are listed through the sale registration process within the department system, which helps document and protect the brokers’ rights and facilitates the preparation of such reports.

Al Hashmi said that the Rera not only effectively applied the items of the bylaws, but also formed quality initiatives and applied the best international practices in the sector to raise the levels of professionalism in brokering in Dubai.

Source: http://www.emirates247.com/property/real-estate/property-commissions-total-dh700m-2012-03-07-1.447209

Real estate market stays hot

Average home price in York approaches $600K

With a little help from an extra day to wheel and deal, housing sales last month were up 16 per cent compared to February 2011 and the average home price in the GTA crossed the $500,000 mark.

Just more than 7,000 homes changed hands across the GTA, 1,346 of them in York Region.

Despite 11-per-cent growth in listings, tight inventory meant the average price of a house continued to climb.

York Region’s average resale price, $584,973, was well above the GTA average of $502,508, itself an 11-per-cent increase over the same month last year.

The Toronto Real Estate Board has said it expects inventory to open up and the rate of the average price increase to slow, but it will have to reconsider that assessment if the market remains tight, senior marketing analysis manager Jason Mercer said.

“While price growth remains strong, the average selling price remains affordable from a mortgage lending perspective for a household earning the average income in the GTA,” he said.

The Canadian Real Estate Association expects low interest rates to keep the national market about on par with what’s been seen over the past decade.

That said, it expects Ontario-wide sales to drop about 2 per cent compared to last year, while prices decline slightly.

Source: http://www.yorkregion.com/news/article/1311390--real-estate-market-stays-hot

Canada Real Estate Assn:Hotspot Home Sales to Subside Slightly

--CREA Forecasts Very Slight Rise Home Resales Nationally in 2012

--Sees 0.3% Sales Drop in 2013, No Real Boost In Prices

OTTAWA (MNI) - Canada housing activity is subsiding from the overheated pace of sales and prices in some national hot spots, but it is a slow drop without any large correction, keeping the national sales pace essentially flat, the Canadian Real Estate Association said in its quartely outlook Monday.

CREA projects national existing home sales 458,800 units in 2012, up just 0.3% from 457,305 last year, driven largely by an expected 2.0% decline in Ontario -- Canada's largest province with more than a third of the population -- to 196,300 units from 200,323 in 2011.

For 2013, CREA forecasts sales to fall by 0.3%, with very slight gains in most provinces offset by a 1.7% decline to 192,900 units in Ontario.

Ontario, in the industrial heartland of Canada, has been suffering large manufacturing employment losses since the 2008 recession and considerable emigration of residents to resources-booming Western Canada.

CREA expects the national average home price to fall 1.1% in 2012 to C$359,100 (US$359,100). In the country's hottest spot, the West Coast province of British Columbia, average prices have been far above those of the rest of Canada, but are expected to drop 4.0% this year to $539,000 from C$561,304 in 2011, and then rise very slightly to $541,800 for 2013.

In Ontario, on the other hand, where Toronto-area condominium starts and sales have been another hotspot, raising home prices overall, CREA expects that to fall slightly to $364,000 this year from an average of $366,390 in 2011, and to not-quite recover in 2013 to $365,800.

After British Columbia, Ontario and Alberta, with an average of $353,390 in 2011, home prices across Canada are markedly lower and, according to CREA, are unlikely to rise greatly.

"Multi-million dollar sales activity in Vancouver caused the national average price to temporarily spike in early 2011," CREA said in a statement. "This phenomenon is not expected to recur in 2012."

Despite considerable debate by analysts and the Bank of Canada and the Finance Department about hot housing activity and an increasing burden of household debt, brought about in good part by prolonged historically low interest rates, CREA said national home sales activity for 2012 and 2013 "is projected to remain roughly on par with the 10-year average for annual activity."

"Risks to the Canadian economic outlook remain elevated owing to the European sovereign debt quagmire, but the continuation in low interest rates is the silver lining," said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump, noting low interest rates would continue to support Canadian home sales and prices.

Klump, however, indicated a caution along with his confidence, about those low interest rates --- just before the Bank of Canada issues a policy interest rate decision on Thursday, when it is widely expected to continue with the 1.0% rate that it has maintained for more than a year.

"Recent trends are reassuring, but interest rates remaining low for longer with doubtless keep the Canadian housing market under scrutiny for signs of overheating," he said.

** Market News International Ottawa **

Source: https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/index.php/canada-real-estate-assnhotspot-home-sales-subside-slightly?q=content/canada-real-estate-assnhotspot-home-sales-subside-slightly

Texoma real estate sales on the rise

If the Texoma housing market is any indication, the local economic condition is greatly improving. The entire nation has been hit hard by a recession in the past few years, but here in Bryan County, things seem to be looking up. Increases in the real estate market reveal that consumers are becoming more confident in the economy.

Linda VanMeter, a local Realtor with Coldwell Banker, recently gave a presentation to the board of the Durant Chamber of Commerce about real estate sales in Bryan County. She said numbers have gone up substantially in in the past year.

“People are feeling more comfortable with the economy,” she said. From January through September 2011, the Texoma housing market showed a 12.7 percent increase in the total number of homes sold than in the same period in 2010. The average price of a home sold also increased by 10.5 percent. In the first nine months of 2011, the median price of a home sold was $95,835, which is up $6,363 from 2010. In 2011, the average number of days a house was on the market was 155, which is a 19 day decrease from the year before.

Statewide, real estate sales are also improving. Real estate sales from January 2011 through September 2011 were up 1.7 percent than 2010. In the third quarter of 2011, there was a 23 percent increase in homes sold statewide than in the year before. VanMeter said the real estate community believes these numbers will continue to improve.

“We feel confident they’ll continue to go up with the stability of the economy,” she said.

She also offered advice for those looking to purchase homes.

“The easiest way to approach it is to talk to a lender to find out any restrictions and find out what payments you can afford, then start looking for a house,” she said. “That way, your heart isn’t broken when you fall in love with a house out of your price range.”

VanMeter said she enjoys being a Realtor and hopes to help others in Bryan County find their perfect home.

“It’s a good time to be in real estate because it’s a joy to help people,” she said. “The real estate community can help people find a home and help make it an easy transition for them.”

Source: http://www.durantdemocrat.com/view/full_story/17720120/article-Texoma-real-estate-sales-on-the-rise-?instance=popular

Property Slips in Manhattan

Despite chirpy predictions by brokers about a strengthening Manhattan real-estate market in 2012, a slowdown in co-op and condo sales has deepened so far this year.

Sales were off 6.4% so far during the first quarter, compared with the year-earlier period, which was the worst quarter for sales since the Manhattan market hit bottom in 2009.

The decline occurred despite a pickup in sale of apartments selling for $4 million or more, including the most expensive apartment sale ever in Manhattan—an $88 million penthouse at 15 Central Park West.

Greg Heym, an economist at Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead, said the slowdown likely reflected weakness in the local job market, including last year's loss of 4,300 jobs in the securities industry between April and December.

"For the first time since the recovery, the U.S. is growing at a quicker pace than New York City," he said. "It had been the U.S. holding us back. That is no longer the case."

The quarterly sales figures are based on a preliminary analysis of data from the city Department of Finance, and include closings filed as of the end of the second month of each quarter.

When sales dropped in fourth-quarter reports, the plunge was viewed by industry figures as an aberration—the result of a temporary economic shock from a gyrating stock market and uncertainty over the European debt situation.

But the new figures indicate that the weakness in sales persisted into the new year, and is likely to produce lower final numbers for the full first quarter.

Brokers said that new deal signings have been rising lately, especially in the last two weeks of an unusually warm February. Residential sales often rise sharply during the spring, usually the peak selling season in New York.

The analysis for the year so far showed that sales of apartments selling for less than $1 million, the largest segment of the market, fell by the most, 7.9% overall, including a steep 14.9% decline in sales of co-ops at that price point.

At the same time, sales at the top end of the market, for apartments selling for $4 million or more, rose by 15.6%, as brokers reported a continuing influx of foreign buyers and strong sales in new condominiums.

At the Laurel, a 31-story new condo on First Avenue and 67th Street, brokers at Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group said they posted $23 million in sales in February, helping to sell out 80% of the building.

Median prices in Manhattan rose, in part because of a drop in the number of less pricey sales. The median price of a Manhattan apartment rose by 5.7%, while the average sale price, boosted by the record $88 million sale, rose by 21.2%.

Still, several brokerage firms said their new contract activity was running ahead of the same period last year.

Pamela Liebman, president of Corcoran Group, said that sales may have been depressed lately because of falling inventory, especially of well-priced apartments. Typically there is a surge of new listings in the spring.

"Anything that comes on in a good building at the right price is selling extremely fast," she said. "Open house traffic is up, the number of buyers is up. There is a severe shortage of new development product."

Hall Willkie, the president of Brown Harris Stevens, said that his new contract figures show that the number of deals with signed contracts rose in January and February compared with the same period a year earlier.

Another brokerage executive, Diane Ramirez, the president of Halstead Property, said: "It is a good, lively, active market across the board."

Jonathan Miller, an appraiser and president of Miller Samuel Inc., who prepared market reports for Prudential Douglas Elliman, said the sluggish figures reflect the fact that "people just held back" toward the end of last year because of economic uncertainty.

He said Wall Street bonuses, though down, were higher than expected, and unlikely to further damp the market.

Even so, he said he didn't expect a dramatic change in the market during the months ahead.

"The real outlook is more of the same," he said, "with significant activity at the upper echelon of the market and more mundane level and pricing at the lower end."

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203986604577255683014521206.html?mod=googlenews_wsj