A property commentator says the market has "clearly turned a corner" after house sales broke through a key level last year.
Alistair Helm, chief executive of industry website realestate.co.nz, says more than 61,000 properties changed hands in 2011, after averaging around the mid-50,000 level for four years.
New Zealand's long-term average is 78,000 property sales a year, but sales "dropped like a stone" from 100,000 to 50,000 after the market peaked in 2007.
Helm said property sales had exceeded the 60,000 barrier in 2009, but it was founded on a "dead cat bounce" when house prices slumped briefly.
This upturn seemed more sustainable, he said.
"From a transaction point of view, we've turned a corner, I'm confident of that.
"That doesn't mean we're at 100,000 and we may not be at 100,000 for three or four years.
"But turnover is good because it allows people to make decisions.
"If there's a property they can buy and they know they can sell their house with certainty, that engenders confidence. It doesn't drive up price, it just gets transactions."
Last year's property market was characterised by a lack of listings and generally flat prices, but Helm said agents were reporting strong buyer interest over the holiday period and listings were tracking higher than normal for January.
Helm said the release of KiwiSaver funds was providing some buying stimulus, but the main reasons for the demand were continuing low interest rates and a return to 95 per cent bank mortgages.
Buyers were getting more confident that the low rates would hang around, and a "sense of stability" was developing over house prices. There was also a certain momentum from homeowners who needed to move but had been scared to.
Helm said he expected 2012 to be brighter, but nowhere near a bubble.
"Certainly there are hot spots around the country but that doesn't mean the market's overly buoyant or getting inflated and I think the Reserve Bank will be pleased to sense that is happening, because they must be worried about these low interest rates."
He predicted 70,000 house sales this year would be a "realistic" level.
Helen O'Sullivan, chief executive of the Real Estate Institute, agreed there had been an "encouraging" rise in property sales since April last year.
She noted the percentage of the housing stock changing hands was also below its 20-year average, despite a fall in housing builds and growing population.
"Back then 6 per cent of the housing stock turned over in a year and now it's 3.6 per cent.
"Whether that's a structural change or just a reflection of a really slow climb back after two recessions, only time will tell."
Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/6332448/Low-interest-rates-KiwiSaver-payouts-boost-property-market
No comments:
Post a Comment